Peer-Reviewed Journal Details
Mandatory Fields
Piggins, A; Barthelemy, F; Martin, M
2019
January
PS: Political Science & Politics
The 2016 Election: Like 1888 but not 1876 or 2000
Published
()
Optional Fields
Donald Trump won the 2016 U.S. Presidential election with fewer popular votes than Hillary Clinton. This is the fourth time this has happened, the others being 1876, 1888 and 2000. In earlier work we analyzed these elections (and others) and showed how the electoral winner can often depend on the size of the House of Representatives. This work was inspired by Michael Neubauer and Joel Zeitlin in their 2003 paper “Outcomes of Presidential Elections and the House Size,” PS: Political Science and Politics 36: 721-725. A sufficiently larger House would have given electoral victories to the winner of the popular vote in both 1876 and 2000. An exception is the election of 1888. In this paper we show that Trump's victory in 2016 is like Harrison's in 1888, and unlike 1876 and 2000. This paper updates our earlier work to include the 2016 election. It also draws attention to some of the anomalous behavior that can arise under the Electoral College.
Grant Details
Publication Themes
Applied Social Sciences and Public Policy